Why this Ariz. congressional race is tightening ahead of Election Day
.oembed-frame { width: 100%; height: 100%; margin: 0; border: 0; }
ARIZONA MIDTERM ELECTION 2026 Voter guide | Governor | Attorney general| Superintendent | Other statewide offices | Ballot measures | Legislature | Judges | Metro Phoenix council, mayor races | School boards | How to vote
A northeastern Arizona congressional race is tightening as Republicans face headwinds in this year's midterm elections.
Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, a rural swath of the state that stretches from
Globe to Page, has seen a sharp uptick in campaign spending and a heightened interest from political analysts approaching the Nov. 3, 2026, election.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan analysis firm, on Oct. 23 shifted the district from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican," a more cautious rating that still predicts a GOP win.
Democrats face an uphill challenge in the district, where Republicans face a strong voter registration advantage. Historically, the district has voted for President Donald Trump by double-digit margins.
Crane won reelection by nearly 10 points in 2024, roughly 55% to 45%. He is now locked in a rematch against the same Democratic candidate, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.
Both parties have spent significant amounts of money in the district, which saw limited spending during the 2024 general elections, according to the most recent disclosures with federal elections officials.
No Going Back PAC, a political group aligned with Trump, had spent around $3 million supporting Crane, records show. The political spending wings of the hardline House Freedom Caucus and conservative Club for Growth have spent another $1 million and $600,000, respectively.
Various Democratic-aligned groups have countered with millions of dollars' worth of television ads, records show, though they've partially scaled back some of their anticipated spending in the district getting closer to Nov. 3, according to media reports.
Crane has emphasized his commitment to rural Arizona in the leadup to what could be a tighter-than-expected race.
On Oct. 20, Crane celebrated in a news release the passage of his first law: a measure that secures the continued operation of veterans' retreat in Gila County, by allowing the county to take ownership of an administrative site near the small town of Young, Arizona.
The land transfer will help give Arizona's veterans "a permanent place to recreate and spend time with their families," Crane wrote on social media. "I look forward to future generations of our nation's heroes enjoying this retreat."
Greg Smith, a Crane spokesperson, drew a contrast between himself and his Democratic opponent.
"Congressman Crane is busy delivering for his constituents in rural Arizona," Smith wrote. "Jonathan Nez is busy chasing checks from Nancy Pelosi's billionaire donors."
Mark Hatton, a Nez spokesperson, painted an optimistic picture of the Democrat's prospects.
“Jonathan Nez has all the momentum in this race because Arizonans are sick and tired of Congressman Crane protecting billionaires and the elite," he wrote. "Arizonans deserve better than politics that puts billionaires first and ordinary people last, and that’s why on November 3rd voters will reject Eli Crane and his failed policies and make history by electing Jonathan Nez."
Early voting began Oct. 7.