Packers vs. Bears preview and predictions: Can Green Bay beat rivals?
The first four weeks are in the books, and teams can now start separating themselves in October. For the Green Bay Packers, Week 5 brings a visit from the rival Chicago Bears and an opportunity to get
a season-changing win. Matt LaFleur's team has labored to narrow wins over the New York Jets and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but beating the Bears -- even if Caleb Williams doesn't play -- would represent an impressive victory. Can the Packers get it done against their biggest rivals?
Previewing Packers-Bears in Week 5 with managing editor Zach Kruse and contributor Mark Oldacres:
What we're watching
Zach: Can the offensive line take another step forward with Kevin Zeitler in the lineup? The expectation is that Zeitler will make his Packers debut on Sunday, and while Travis Glover was fine at right guard last Sunday, Zeitler could provide another real boost. It's possible an offensive line of Morgan-Tomlinson-Rhyan-Zeitler-Belton will be the preferred starting five the rest of the way. Against the Bears, the Packers have to be able to run the ball with some consistency, protect Jordan Love in the dropback passing game and keep possession of the football, and that all starts up front. If the Packers offensive line looks legit on Sunday, the ceiling of the Packers in 2026 would raise considerably.
Mark: The Bears’ red zone offense against the Packers red zone defense is a battle between a stoppable force and a moveable object, as Chicago is 31st in red zone scoring percentage and Green Bay is 32nd in defending the red zone. On the flip side, the Packers offense has had trouble converting red zone trips into touchdowns, and even though they had more success last week, they still fumbled away one opportunity and needed fourth down to finish off another. This is likely to be a close game, so cashing in on scoring opportunities will be vital.
Biggest reason for optimism
Zach: The Packers receivers against the Bears starting secondary looks like a plus matchup for Green Bay. Both Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson have given up catches and yards this season, while both Christian Watson and Matthew Golden have been consistent explosive play generators. Can the Packers protect well enough for Jordan Love to attack down the field? In all three matchups last season, Love (or Malik Willis) and the passing game created explosive plays. Watson caught touchdown passes in two of the three games. Golden had his best game of the season in the playoff matchup. But can the Packers protect well enough for Watson and Golden to consistently impact the game?
Mark: If Chicago was at full strength coming into this game, it would be hard to pick against them given Green Bay’s performances early in the season. Barring a late twist, the Bears offense — which is the real driver of their recent success — will be without Caleb Williams and Kyle Monangai. As the old saying goes: ‘It’s not who you play, it’s when you play them’ and the Packers are fortunate to be catching their NFC North rivals in a weakened state. If the Bears offense cannot produce the same kind of fireworks they previously have, Jordan Love and company should be able to do enough on the other side to secure the win.
Biggest reason for concern
Zach: The Packers will play a backup quarterback in Tyson Bagent, but can the defense pressure him enough to keep the Bears offense from controlling the football? Chicago's run game is a big concern, but Bagent operating behind an elite offensive line and consistently getting clean pockets should be enough big concern. Bagent was excellent when kept clean last week, and the Packers are not going to have Micah Parsons or Edgerrin Cooper. It'll be tough sledding against Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland and the rest of the Bears weapons if the Packers aren't disrupting Bagent in the pocket. Blitzing at a high rate is an option, but Ben Johnson has plenty of counter punches if Jonathan Gannon wants to go the chaotic route.
Mark: In the last two games, Ben Johnson has shown he is more than capable of fashioning an effective offense no matter who is at quarterback, with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent both leading Chicago to victories. He will undoubtedly have some changeups ready to keep Jonathan Gannon on his toes, and even without Monangai, their run game could be Green Bay’s kryptonite in this one, keeping the defense off balance and making life easy for Bagent. The Packers should not expect an easy afternoon on defense.
Matchup to watch
Zach: Javon Bullard vs. Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland and Kaliff Raymond. The Packers slot corner will be tasked with covering three very different types of receiving weapons. The Bears use Burden, Loveland and Raymond in the slot, and all three win in different ways. Burden is a terrific separator. Loveland is big and athletic. Raymond is a shifty return type. Oh, and Bullard will have to be excellent as the third safety type in the run game. The good news is that Bullard has quietly been one of the NFL's best slot defenders in 2026. Like Evan Williams last week, maybe Sunday will be Bullard's breakout performance of the year. The Packers need it.
Mark: This is arguably the toughest test Green Bay’s defensive line has faced so far, as Chicago’s offensive line is one of the better ones in the league. The Packers may be without Javon Hargrave, who was added to the injury report on Friday with a toe issue and is questionable. Can the defensive tackles and edge rushers hold their own at the line of scrimmage in the run game and impact the quarterback in the passing game? Bagent and Keenum have been getting the ball out of their hands much quicker than Williams, so a slow burn pass rush is not going to get it done.
Packers win if…
Zach: Play a clean game, stay out of third-and-long and tackle consistently. It's a long checklist, but the Packers can't afford to commit pre-snap penalties, drop passes, face obvious dropback passing situations on third down and give the Bears free yards. Sunday has to be the start of the Packers playing cleaner football, especially on offense. The Bears are good but the Packers will be right in it if they don't shoot themselves in the foot over and over. But that's becoming a big "if" for the 2026 Packers.
Mark: The offensive line repeats last week’s success. It was surprising Todd Bowles did not send more blitzes at the Packers last week, but Dennis Allen has been very aggressive early in the season and will probably stay that way, as his defense is not the most talented and relies on creating chaos and riding the variance that comes with it. Last week was a start, but if Green Bay’s O-line does not produce another competent performance, the offense will go back to how it looked in Weeks 1-3. Whether Kevin Zeitler plays or not, the Packers must clear the bar to let the offense operate efficiently.
Zach: The Bears are dominating time of possession this season, averaging over 36 minutes of possession per game and ranking first in the NFL in both plays per drive and time per drive. Can the Packers sustain their own drives to keep the defense off the field, and can Jonathan Gannon's group get enough stops on third down? The Bears are running the ball well and converting on third down (47.4 percent, sixth). While Chicago might not be a quick strike offense, they can drain the life out of a game (and a stadium) by possessing the football and grinding away an opponent.
Mark: Love ranks 10th in expected points added (EPA) per play against six or more pass rushers, which is better than his ranking against five pass rushers and against no blitz at all. Allen is sending six or more rushers at the fourth highest rate in the league in 2026. If he wants to take that kind of risk, Love and the Packers have to be able to punish it, especially if Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are singled up in man coverage. After gashing the Panthers on the ground in Week 1, the Bears’ rushing attack has not been as dangerous since, ranking 21st in EPA/rush. However, they specialize in outside zone, which gave the Packers fits in the Falcons game. Green Bay must be able to keep the Chicago run game in check on Sunday.
Predictions
Zach: It's hard to believe in this Packers team until they prove they can go play 60 minutes of quality football. There are still too many avoidable mistakes happening, especially on offense. Consider this: the Bears have won the last two games -- with two different backup quarterbacks under center -- by 31 points. The Packers are -32 for the entire season despite playing a quarterback schedule of Carson Wentz/Geno Smith/Michael Penix/Jalon Daniels. Should the Packers win at home against a backup quarterback? Probably. But they will not go into Sunday as the better team. The Bears have a dominant offensive line, an adaptable playcaller and a defense that is flying around and make life difficult in the key situations. A win for the Packers here could truly be a turning point for the season, but I don't see it happening -- not with all the factors working against Matt LaFleur's team. Losing Edgerrin Cooper the week before facing the Bears was terrible timing. Bears 27, Packers 20
Mark: Once again the Packers get ready to face a backup quarterback, and although Tyson Bagent will be helped by having offensive whiz Ben Johnson in his corner, the Bears have been dealt another blow with Kyle Monangai ruled out. Chicago’s run game has not been as effective since they ran all over the Panthers in Week 1, and without Monangai it will be down to D’Andre Swift (who is also banged up) to carry the load. Johnson will no doubt cook up a gameplan to put points on the board, but if the Packers can continue the momentum they built on offense a week ago and limit unforced errors, they should have enough to beat their previous high for points in a game of 22 and outlast the Bears. Packers 23, Bears 20